For the past few decades, numerous countries, primarily in the Global North, have experienced an extended period of declining fertility. Roughly twenty of these countries are now beginning to experience actual population declines.
On July 11th, recognized globally as World Population Day, the United Nations released its biennial report on World Population Prospects. Among its recommendations is that certain countries should make an effort to increase their fertility rates including the US and China.
But why?
The UN believes that policies and practices to increase fertility rates will slow the perceived negative economic impacts from aging and declining populations. In theory, that sounds reasonable, but how do the UN’s experts support such claims?
In contrast to the UN’s recommendations, Earth Overshoot (EO) recently reported the results of a peer-reviewed economic study that found countries with declining populations do not necessarily experience significant negative economic impacts from declining populations. A podcast interview with the study authors, A Strong Economy Begins With a Shrinking Workforce can be found here. The study’s authors stated that in certain nations with declining populations;
“GDP is growing, GDP per capita is also growing. The level of prosperity is much higher…. labor participation rate increased, as labor became scarcer, more people found it good to go to work, and real wages increased and unemployment declined.”
Assuming this pattern continues, the authors surmise that, due to their increased wealth, these countries will also be better able to finance health and security programs for their elderly.
Lastly, the authors expect that with an overall decrease in population, not only would people in these countries be economically better off, but the natural world and natural resources would also benefit as a result of the reduced demands placed upon them.
Ruling out an intentional omission of the beneficial economic outcomes these countries are experiencing as a result of decreased populations, the UN must certainly know that China and the United States, as two of the most populous countries, are the ones most responsible for our enormous over-consumption of natural resources and skyrocketing levels of CO2 emissions, general waste, and pollution.
Yet the UN recommends larger families for these and other developed countries. This is at its core an irrational and dangerous recommendation which will lead to increased environmental destruction and greater societal suffering among human populations.
Earth Overshoot is asking supporters to sign and send our letter demanding the U.N. amend its report
Click HERE to take action
*To read the study on Declining Population and GDP Growth: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-023-02223-7
*To listen to our interview of the authors of the study: A Strong Economy Begins With a Shrinking Workforce
